Decision Modelling

Medical finding fashioning: specimening the effect of exploit! This lecture: ? Some hypothesis ab pop copyling ? Again: exemplar using decision trees ? afterward the break: Sensitivity Analysis WHAT IS model & WHY IS IT USEFUL? ? Model: simplification of the real world, with solitary(prenominal) the roughly important components considered. ? Enables to work out what is likely to happen if you shambling particular decisions in health and healthcare ? Encourages medical decision-making to be explicit ? Explicitly shows the lift out decision (from >=2 options) at the clipping a decision is made, presumption available entropy at that age. ? Helps to identify gaps in make out evidence ? Statistically attractive : allows a range of uncertainties to be confered and shows how these may flow to the outcomes and, hence, the decision. Medical finish do - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 3 WHAT IS GOOD stupe IN MODELING? A good model should: ? contrive current clinical practice session vs. an alternative ? be based on the best available data and assumptions where necessary ? cover an appropriate prison term period (e.g. longer time horizon for chronic diseases) ? explore the brain around data inputs and assumptions using sensitiveness analyses.

? be transparent and reproducible on the whole models are wrong almost are useful Medical decision Making - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 4 ship canal TO STUDY A SYSTEM decree AND KELTON, 2000 governance Experiment with the tangible system Experiment with a model of the system Physical model Mathematical model Analytical solution Simulation Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 5  essay WITH THE ACTUAL SYSTEM ? If possible: ? No question whether the study is valid System ? However, a great deal non possible: ? Costly ? Disruptive to the system ? System might not exist ? big businessman take long time ? So, instead use models Experiment with the actual system...If you fate to get a full phase of the moon essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com

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